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I'm writing this from the Le Saigonnais Business lounge at Tan Son Nhat International Airport, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. It's been 5 years since I visited Ho Chi Minh City, and this trip blew me away! I can’t recognise many of the residential complexes and mixed-use commercial real estate that have been constructed over the past few years. The mood is optimistic, and the vast majority of Vietnamese friends and acquaintances are optimistic about their country. Contrary to previous generations, many of them only want to leave the country temporarily for higher education or the coveted tag of “international experience”.
For those who’ve never been to Ho Chi Minh City, think of Singapore with the rough edges you see in a city with a rapidly transforming urban landscape, where rooftop bars and trendy cafés coexist with noodle stalls and street cart vendors selling roast meat. Every day, more individuals are entering the middle class, getting educated, and navigating the global marketplace with greater confidence and ease than ever before. The changing aspirations of the growing middle class are evident everywhere - from the luxury condominiums being constructed in District 4 to the rapid expansion of the aviation networks by Vietnamese carriers.
The burgeoning tech industry, the large number of good manufacturing jobs being created, and the influx of investment and tourism are driving greater prosperity in Vietnam, and it looks as though the country is just getting started. Vietnam is by no means an exception, but just one of the many case studies in the dynamism and ascendance of Asia in the world. The world economy has radically changed over the past decade. The Asian share of global GDP has risen from 38% to 45% and is likely to exceed 50% by 2030 (The Future is Asian).
In fact, Asian economies constitute 3 out of the world’s top 5 largest economies (Visual Capitalist).
Granted, the GDP per capita in many Asian economies is still rather low in comparison to European, or North American standards. However, this too shall increase with better infrastructure, public services and overall GDP growth.
The interesting thing is that in the case of several Asian countries - prosperity is already there, it’s just not evenly distributed. For example, in the case of India, there are three economies hiding in plain sight. India 1, which is the wealthiest part of India’s population, is comprised of 110M people with a per capita income of almost $10,000. This is essentially the same as Mexico, a country with about the same population and per capita income. India 2 is comprised of the next 104M folks with an economy the size of the Phillippines. Finally, India 3 with a population of 1.1B people with a per capita income of about USD 1100 (Blume Ventures).
This might seem depressing, but a large chunk of India 3 works in the informal sector, and the greater proliferation of digital identification, bank accounts, and mobile payments is slowly bringing them into India 2 to eventually move into India 1. These digital services are facilitating the direct transfer of government benefits to the needy without any leakage due to intermediaries. Furthermore, the poverty rate has been declining steadily since 2004 (EY).
other emerging, large Asian economies such as China, Indonesia and The Philippines show similar economic diversity. This allows them to plug in at various points of the value chain, in areas that are both R&D intensive as well as ones that are labour intensive. Rather than paint a continent in broad strokes, the raison d'être of this Substack is to bring you growth stories from all over Asia.
I finish my Gin and Tonic, and make my way out of the lounge. I smile at the memories of walking through the streets of Ho Chi Minh City, amidst the hustle and bustle of this industrious country. Welcome to Asia Charts, you can look forward to a mix of facts-on-the-ground style analysis coupled with deep dives into the opportunities and sectoral trends in various Asian economies.
The next post is going to cover one of the newest international financial centers that’s seemingly hidden in plain sight.